Prices buoyed by U.S. stimulus hopes and Gulf weather risks.
Oil prices are poised for a weekly gain as traders balance near-term supply disruptions from a U.S. Gulf storm with renewed optimism around economic stimulus measures that could support demand. Brent crude hovered near $78 a barrel, while WTI traded around $73, both marking their strongest weekly performance in nearly a month.
Macro Tailwinds: Stimulus and Sentiment
Investors are betting that fresh fiscal spending or monetary easing in major economies could cushion growth and sustain energy consumption. Market sentiment has also improved on signs that U.S. job and manufacturing data remain resilient, tempering recession fears.
Supply-Side Focus: Gulf Storm Watch
Meteorologists are tracking a tropical storm system moving through the Gulf of Mexico that could temporarily halt offshore production and refining operations. Even a brief shutdown could tighten short-term supply, especially with inventories already trending below seasonal norms.
Market Positioning and Technicals
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Hedge funds and commodity traders have been rebuilding long positions after a three-week pullback.
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Technical charts show support near $71 for WTI and resistance around $75, suggesting a consolidation phase before the next directional move.
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Meanwhile, OPEC+ discipline and continued output restraint remain key stabilizing forces.
Outlook: Volatility Ahead
While the near-term tone is constructive, analysts warn that price volatility could return if the storm dissipates quickly or stimulus talks stall. The medium-term trend hinges on China’s demand recovery, U.S. inventory trends, and policy shifts from the Federal Reserve.
For now, the market narrative has flipped from fear to cautious optimism — with oil regaining momentum on both weather risks and macro policy hopes.
